Michael Johnson
DE, Georgia Tech · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #70 (CIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 155 of ~160 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2018 (~97%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #52 (#9 at his position), close to where he went (#70). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Georgia Tech: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at 266 lbs: faster than 94% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 155 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 54 |
| Defense | 268 tackles, 44.5 sacks, 4 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 266 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.61 s |
| Bench press | 28 reps |
| Vertical | 38.5" |
| Broad jump | 128" |
| 3-cone | 7.42 s |
| Shuttle | 4.37 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #52 overall (#9 DE) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 67 | Alex Magee | redraft #178 |
| 68 | Jarron Gilbert | redraft #219 |
| 69 | Jason Williams | redraft #152 |
| 71 | Matt Shaughnessy | redraft #72 |
| 72 | Terrance Knighton | redraft #37 |
| 73 | Derek Cox | redraft #82 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.