Michael Gaines
TE, Central Florida · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #232 (CAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 83 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2009 (~86%). Last NFL season: 2009.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #225 (#13 at his position), close to where he went (#232). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Central Florida: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.06 40-yard dash at 275 lbs: faster than 1% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 83 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 7 |
| Receiving | 84 rec, 869 yds, 6 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2009 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 275 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.06 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 109" |
| 3-cone | 7.44 s |
| Shuttle | 4.18 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #225 overall (#13 TE) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 229 | David Kimball | redraft #247 |
| 230 | Jared Clauss | redraft #157 |
| 231 | Kevin Sampson | redraft #139 |
| 233 | Christian Morton | redraft #175 |
| 234 | Trevor Johnson | redraft #146 |
| 235 | Derrick Ward | redraft #71 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.