Michael Carter
RB, North Carolina · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #107 (NYJ)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #83 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#107). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at 201 lbs: faster than 58% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 60 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~71%). Plus 2 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 62 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 16 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 16.1 |
| Rushing | 418 att, 1,692 yds, 9 TD |
| Receiving | 145 rec, 1,038 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 7", 201 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.50 s |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 119" |
| 3-cone | 6.81 s |
| Shuttle | 3.98 s |
| Arm / hand | 29.13" / 8.75" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #83 overall (#5 RB) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 104 | Brandon Stephens | redraft #53 |
| 105 | Baron Browning | redraft #64 |
| 106 | Jay Tufele | redraft #151 |
| 108 | Darren Hall | redraft #147 |
| 109 | Dez Fitzpatrick | redraft #224 |
| 110 | James Hudson | redraft #114 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.