Michael Buchanan
DE, Illinois · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #226 (NWE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #109 overall (#13 at his position), but he lasted until pick #226: teams let him slide 117 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Illinois: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.78 40-yard dash at 255 lbs: faster than 72% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 18 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2014 (~56%). Last NFL season: 2014.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 18 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Defense | 7 tackles, 2 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 255 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.78 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 6.91 s |
| Shuttle | 4.44 s |
| Arm / hand | 34" / 9.7" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #109 overall (#13 DE) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 223 | Nick Williams | redraft #71 |
| 224 | Kevin Dorsey | redraft #224 |
| 225 | Eric Herman | redraft #247 |
| 227 | Garrett Gilkey | redraft #188 |
| 228 | Jawan Jamison | redraft #248 |
| 229 | Everett Dawkins | redraft #230 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.