Maxx Williams
TE, Minnesota · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #55 (BAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #49 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#55).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Minnesota: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.78 40-yard dash at 249 lbs: faster than 33% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 83 of ~130 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2022 (~64%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 83 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 8 |
| Rushing | 5 att, 14 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 105 rec, 1,012 yds, 6 TD |
| Defense | 7 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 249 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.78 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 7.3 s |
| Shuttle | 4.37 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #49 overall (#1 TE) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 52 | Jordan Phillips | redraft #55 |
| 53 | Jake Fisher | redraft #115 |
| 54 | Ameer Abdullah | redraft #70 |
| 56 | Senquez Golson | redraft #229 |
| 57 | Rob Havenstein | redraft #11 |
| 58 | Markus Golden | redraft #50 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.