Matthew Golden
WR, Texas · 2025 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #23 (GNB)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
The 2025 class is only 1 season in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #23 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#23).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.29 40-yard dash at 191 lbs: faster than 98% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 13 of ~17 possible regular-season games from 2025 through 2025 (~76%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 20 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.6 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 6.6 |
| Rushing | 11 att, 55 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 59 rec, 862 yds, 3 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2025 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2025 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 191 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.29 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #23 overall (#2 WR) |
Picked around him 2025 redraft
| 20 | Jahdae Barron | redraft #66 |
| 21 | Derrick Harmon | redraft #65 |
| 22 | Omarion Hampton | redraft #45 |
| 24 | Donovan Jackson | redraft #44 |
| 25 | Jaxson Dart | redraft #1 |
| 26 | James Pearce | redraft #114 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.