Matthew Butler
DT, Tennessee · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #175 (LVR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Availability
Played 27 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~40%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #144 (#9 at his position), close to where he went (#175).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Tennessee: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.00 40-yard dash at 297 lbs: faster than 34% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 27 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.0 |
| Defense | 12 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 297 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.00 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 112" |
| 3-cone | 7.89 s |
| Shuttle | 4.81 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.63" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #144 overall (#9 DT) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 172 | Samuel Womack | redraft #141 |
| 173 | Marcus McKethan | redraft #200 |
| 174 | Dominique Robinson | redraft #143 |
| 176 | Damone Clark | redraft #90 |
| 177 | James Mitchell | redraft #215 |
| 178 | John Ridgeway | redraft #137 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.