Matthew Bosher
K, Miami (FL) · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #192 (ATL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
K (ST group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68% of the time (97 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 130 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2019 (~90%). Last NFL season: 2019.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #270 (#3 at his position); he went #192, 78 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Miami (FL): a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.78 40-yard dash at 208 lbs: faster than 75% of STs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 130 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 14 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 0 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 21 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position ST | 68.0% n=97 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 208 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.78 s |
| Bench press | 8 reps |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #270 overall (#3 K) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 189 | Mike Mohamed | redraft #162 |
| 190 | Colin Jones | redraft #101 |
| 191 | Jason Kelce | redraft #7 |
| 193 | Brian Rolle | redraft #128 |
| 194 | Markell Carter | redraft #238 |
| 195 | J.T. Thomas | redraft #102 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.