Marvin Mitchell
LB, Tennessee · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #220 (NOR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 98 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2013 (~88%). Last NFL season: 2013.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #279 (#12 at his position); he went #220, 59 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Tennessee: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.87 40-yard dash at 249 lbs: faster than 4% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 98 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 12 |
| Defense | 125 tackles, 1 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 249 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.87 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 108" |
| 3-cone | 7.29 s |
| Shuttle | 4.25 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #279 overall (#12 LB) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 217 | Tyler Thigpen | redraft #119 |
| 218 | Zach Diles | redraft #88 |
| 219 | Kelvin Smith | redraft #212 |
| 221 | Trumaine McBride | redraft #96 |
| 222 | Derek Schouman | redraft #170 |
| 223 | Michael Otto | redraft #129 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.