Martrez Milner
TE, Georgia · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #133 (ATL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 8 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2007 (~50%). Last NFL season: 2007.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #91 overall (#5 at his position), but he lasted until pick #133: teams let him slide 42 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Georgia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.79 40-yard dash at 252 lbs: faster than 29% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 8 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Receiving | 9 rec, 50 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2007 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 252 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.79 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 7.35 s |
| Shuttle | 4.49 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #91 overall (#5 TE) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 130 | Josh Beekman | redraft #115 |
| 131 | Brannon Condren | redraft #195 |
| 132 | Ryan McBean | redraft #113 |
| 134 | Antwan Barnes | redraft #137 |
| 135 | Joe Cohen | redraft #210 |
| 136 | Clint Session | redraft #71 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.