MarShawn Lloyd
RB, USC · 2024 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #88 (GNB)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
The 2024 class is only 2 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Availability
Played 0 of ~34 possible regular-season games from 2024 through 2025 (~0%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #71 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#88).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at 220 lbs: faster than 72% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 7 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.2 |
| Rushing | 54 att, 137 yds, 2 TD |
| Receiving | 11 rec, 58 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2024 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2024 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 220 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #71 overall (#4 RB) |
Picked around him 2024 redraft
| 85 | Zak Zinter | redraft #176 |
| 86 | Dominick Puni | redraft #13 |
| 87 | Marist Liufau | redraft #99 |
| 89 | Tykee Smith | redraft #45 |
| 90 | Elijah Jones | redraft #223 |
| 91 | Ty'Ron Hopper | redraft #124 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.