Marquess Wilson
WR, Washington St. · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #236 (CHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
20 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #208 (#26 at his position), close to where he went (#236). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Washington St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.51 40-yard dash at 194 lbs: faster than 33% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 31 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2016 (~48%). Last NFL season: 2016.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 31 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| Receiving | 56 rec, 777 yds, 3 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 194 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.51 s |
| Bench press | 7 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| 3-cone | 6.65 s |
| Shuttle | 4.33 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.1" / 9.2" |
| Age at draft | 20 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #208 overall (#26 WR) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 233 | David Bass | redraft #130 |
| 234 | Zac Dysert | redraft #249 |
| 235 | Steve Beauharnais | redraft #216 |
| 237 | B.J. Daniels | redraft #211 |
| 238 | Aaron Mellette | redraft #250 |
| 239 | David King | redraft #204 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.