Marcus Smith
LB, Louisville · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #26 (PHI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #80 (#7 at his position); he went #26, 54 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Louisville: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.66 40-yard dash at 251 lbs: faster than 46% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 53 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2018 (~66%). Last NFL season: 2018.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 53 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Defense | 25 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 251 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.66 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 7.48 s |
| Shuttle | 4.47 s |
| Arm / hand | 34" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #80 overall (#7 LB) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 23 | Dee Ford | redraft #71 |
| 24 | Darqueze Dennard | redraft #103 |
| 25 | Jason Verrett | redraft #89 |
| 27 | Deone Bucannon | redraft #50 |
| 28 | Kelvin Benjamin | redraft #75 |
| 29 | Dominique Easley | redraft #134 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.