Marcus Murphy
RB, Missouri · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #230 (NOR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #250 (#23 at his position), close to where he went (#230).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Missouri: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at 198 lbs: faster than 25% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 28 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2018 (~44%). Last NFL season: 2018.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 28 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Rushing | 60 att, 291 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 14 rec, 36 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 198 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.61 s |
| Bench press | 11 reps |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 109" |
| Shuttle | 4.4 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #250 overall (#23 RB) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 227 | Martin Ifedi | redraft #248 |
| 228 | Austin Shepherd | redraft #190 |
| 229 | Ben Koyack | redraft #185 |
| 231 | Joey Iosefa | redraft #222 |
| 232 | Edmond Robinson | redraft #168 |
| 233 | Da'Ron Brown | redraft #249 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.