Malcolm Mitchell
WR, Georgia · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #112 (NWE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #123 (#14 at his position), close to where he went (#112).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Georgia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.45 40-yard dash at 198 lbs: faster than 57% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 14 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2016 (~88%). Last NFL season: 2016.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 14 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 4.0 |
| Receiving | 32 rec, 401 yds, 4 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 198 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.45 s |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 129" |
| 3-cone | 6.94 s |
| Shuttle | 4.34 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.5" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #123 overall (#14 WR) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 109 | B.J. Goodson | redraft #85 |
| 110 | Tyler Higbee | redraft #54 |
| 111 | Miles Killebrew | redraft #90 |
| 113 | Nick Kwiatkoski | redraft #84 |
| 114 | Ricardo Louis | redraft #175 |
| 115 | De'Vondre Campbell | redraft #27 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.