Lynn Bowden Jr.
WR, Kentucky · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #80 (LVR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #144 (#24 at his position); he went #80, 64 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 26 of ~67 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2023 (~39%). Last NFL season: 2023.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Kentucky: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 26 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 3.0 |
| Passing | 1/2, 32 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 14 att, 64 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 39 rec, 294 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 204 lbs |
| Bench press | 13 reps |
| Arm / hand | 30.88" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #144 overall (#24 WR) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 77 | Michael Ojemudia | redraft #170 |
| 78 | Matt Hennessy | redraft #112 |
| 79 | Jabari Zuniga | redraft #214 |
| 81 | Bryan Edwards | redraft #143 |
| 82 | Neville Gallimore | redraft #94 |
| 83 | Lloyd Cushenberry III | redraft #56 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.