Luke Farrell
TE, Ohio St. · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #145 (JAX)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #313 (#17 at his position); he went #145, 168 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Ohio St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.79 40-yard dash at 251 lbs: faster than 29% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 82 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~96%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 89 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.8 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 4.8 |
| Receiving | 49 rec, 422 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 10 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 251 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.79 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 7.14 s |
| Shuttle | 4.36 s |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #313 overall (#17 TE) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 142 | Royce Newman | redraft #89 |
| 143 | Tyree Gillespie | redraft #202 |
| 144 | Joshua Kaindoh | redraft #233 |
| 146 | Jamien Sherwood | redraft #67 |
| 147 | Brevin Jordan | redraft #154 |
| 148 | Ta'Quon Graham | redraft #117 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.