Leighton Vander Esch
OLB, Boise St. · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #19 (DAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #32 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#19).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Boise St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.65 40-yard dash at 256 lbs: faster than 49% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OLB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 71 of ~99 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2023 (~72%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 71 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 35 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 35.0 |
| Defense | 296 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 256 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.65 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 39.5" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| 3-cone | 6.88 s |
| Shuttle | 4.15 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.88" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #32 overall (#2 OLB) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 16 | Tremaine Edmunds | redraft #9 |
| 17 | Derwin James | redraft #24 |
| 18 | Jaire Alexander | redraft #55 |
| 20 | Frank Ragnow | redraft #20 |
| 21 | Billy Price | redraft #101 |
| 22 | Rashaan Evans | redraft #58 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.