Lecitus Smith
OL, Virginia Tech · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #215 (ARI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, availability. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 19 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~28%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #171 overall (#13 at his position), but he lasted until pick #215: teams let him slide 44 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Virginia Tech: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.18 40-yard dash at 314 lbs: faster than 58% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OL (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 19 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.0 |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 314 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.18 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Broad jump | 99" |
| 3-cone | 7.88 s |
| Shuttle | 4.78 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.5" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #171 overall (#13 OL) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 212 | Derion Kendrick | redraft #140 |
| 213 | John FitzPatrick | redraft #232 |
| 214 | Ja'Sir Taylor | redraft #133 |
| 216 | Curtis Brooks | redraft #259 |
| 217 | James Houston | redraft #164 |
| 218 | Ko Kieft | redraft #213 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.