Lawrence Sidbury
DE, Richmond · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #125 (ATL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #49 overall (#8 at his position), but he lasted until pick #125: teams let him slide 76 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Richmond: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 266 lbs: faster than 97% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 50 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2015 (~45%). Last NFL season: 2015.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 50 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Defense | 15 tackles, 5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 266 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53 s |
| Bench press | 28 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 7.46 s |
| Shuttle | 4.43 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #49 overall (#8 DE) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 122 | Anthony Hill | redraft #209 |
| 123 | Rich Ohrnberger | redraft #122 |
| 124 | Louis Murphy | redraft #84 |
| 126 | Slade Norris | redraft #212 |
| 127 | Austin Collie | redraft #87 |
| 128 | Tony Fiammetta | redraft #193 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.