Larry Fitzgerald
WR, Pittsburgh · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #3 (ARI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 263 of ~272 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2020 (~97%). Last NFL season: 2020.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #1 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#3).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Pittsburgh: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.48 40-yard dash at 225 lbs: faster than 44% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 263 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 17 |
| Pro Bowls | 11 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 93 |
| Passing | 2/4, 53 yds, 1 TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 20 att, 68 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 1432 rec, 17,492 yds, 121 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 225 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.48 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #1 overall (#1 WR) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 1 | Eli Manning | redraft #3 |
| 2 | Robert Gallery | redraft #40 |
| 4 | Philip Rivers | redraft #1 |
| 5 | Sean Taylor | redraft #55 |
| 6 | Kellen Winslow | redraft #42 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.