Larrell Murchison
DT, North Carolina St. · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #174 (TEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #181 (#14 at his position), close to where he went (#174). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.05 40-yard dash at 297 lbs: faster than 27% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 59 of ~101 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2025 (~58%). Plus 2 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 61 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 7 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 7.2 |
| Defense | 20 tackles, 4 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 297 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.05 s |
| Bench press | 29 reps |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 7.89 s |
| Shuttle | 4.51 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.13" / 10.25" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #181 overall (#14 DT) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 171 | Isaiah Coulter | redraft #238 |
| 172 | Jason Huntley | redraft #234 |
| 173 | Darnell Mooney | redraft #30 |
| 175 | Kamal Martin | redraft #173 |
| 176 | K.J. Osborn | redraft #102 |
| 177 | Michael Danna | redraft #64 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.