Lance Mitchell
LB, Oklahoma · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #168 (ARI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #98 overall (#4 at his position), but he lasted until pick #168: teams let him slide 70 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.85 40-yard dash at 247 lbs: faster than 6% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 12 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2005 (~75%). Last NFL season: 2005.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 12 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Defense | 7 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2005 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 247 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.85 s |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| 3-cone | 7.49 s |
| Shuttle | 4.38 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #98 overall (#4 LB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 165 | Robert Hunt | redraft #236 |
| 166 | Rian Wallace | redraft #169 |
| 167 | Michael Hawkins | redraft #176 |
| 169 | Geoff Hangartner | redraft #51 |
| 170 | Ryan Claridge | redraft #237 |
| 171 | Ben Emanuel | redraft #164 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.