Laken Tomlinson
G, Duke · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #28 (DET)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 176 of ~181 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2025 (career total from PFR, which may already include some 2026 games) (~97%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #53 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#28). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Duke: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.33 40-yard dash at 323 lbs: faster than 21% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 176 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 10 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 55 |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 323 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.33 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 103" |
| 3-cone | 8.17 s |
| Shuttle | 4.87 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #53 overall (#1 G) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 25 | Shaq Thompson | redraft #30 |
| 26 | Breshad Perriman | redraft #95 |
| 27 | Byron Jones | redraft #40 |
| 29 | Phillip Dorsett | redraft #91 |
| 30 | Damarious Randall | redraft #73 |
| 31 | Stephone Anthony | redraft #112 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.