L.J. Collier
DE, TCU · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #29 (SEA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 66 of ~117 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2025 (~56%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #38 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#29).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
TCU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.91 40-yard dash at 283 lbs: faster than 49% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 73 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 16 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.4 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 17.4 |
| Defense | 43 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 283 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.91 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 30" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 7.71 s |
| Shuttle | 4.78 s |
| Arm / hand | 34" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #38 overall (#5 DE) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 26 | Montez Sweat | redraft #19 |
| 27 | Johnathan Abram | redraft #106 |
| 28 | Jerry Tillery | redraft #61 |
| 30 | Deandre Baker | redraft #144 |
| 31 | Kaleb McGary | redraft #35 |
| 32 | N'Keal Harry | redraft #138 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.