Kraig Urbik
T, Wisconsin · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #79 (PIT)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #95 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#79). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wisconsin: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.25 40-yard dash at 328 lbs: faster than 41% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 100 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2016 (~78%). Last NFL season: 2016.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 100 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 27 |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 328 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.25 s |
| Bench press | 29 reps |
| Vertical | 24" |
| Broad jump | 94" |
| 3-cone | 7.87 s |
| Shuttle | 4.89 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #95 overall (#4 T) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 76 | DeAndre Levy | redraft #24 |
| 77 | Antoine Caldwell | redraft #110 |
| 78 | Louis Vasquez | redraft #9 |
| 80 | Kevin Barnes | redraft #155 |
| 81 | Roy Miller | redraft #45 |
| 82 | Derrick Williams | redraft #207 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.