Kevin Ellison
LB, USC · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #189 (SDG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age, position. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #150 overall, but he lasted until pick #189: teams let him slide 39 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.75 40-yard dash at 227 lbs: faster than 21% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 13 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2009 (~81%). Last NFL season: 2009.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 13 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Defense | 43 tackles, 1 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2009 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 227 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.75 s |
| Bench press | 32 reps |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #150 overall |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 186 | Robert Henson | redraft #217 |
| 187 | Brandon Underwood | redraft #171 |
| 188 | Brice McCain | redraft #91 |
| 190 | Al Afalava | redraft #140 |
| 191 | Coye Francies | redraft #197 |
| 192 | Aaron Brown | redraft #172 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.