Kenyan Drake
RB, Alabama · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #73 (MIA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #98 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#73). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Alabama: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.45 40-yard dash at 210 lbs: faster than 76% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 104 of ~131 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2023 (~79%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 104 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 33 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 33.0 |
| Rushing | 869 att, 3,866 yds, 33 TD |
| Receiving | 218 rec, 1,655 yds, 8 TD |
| Defense | 6 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 210 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.45 s |
| Bench press | 10 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 123" |
| 3-cone | 7.04 s |
| Shuttle | 4.21 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.75" / 8.63" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #98 overall (#7 RB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 70 | Bronson Kaufusi | redraft #195 |
| 71 | Darian Thompson | redraft #115 |
| 72 | Jonathan Bullard | redraft #65 |
| 74 | KeiVarae Russell | redraft #197 |
| 75 | Shilique Calhoun | redraft #160 |
| 76 | Shon Coleman | redraft #144 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.