Kenny Pickett
QB, Pittsburgh · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #20 (PIT)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 35 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~51%). Plus 3 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #22 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#20).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Pittsburgh: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.73 40-yard dash at 217 lbs: faster than 67% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 38 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 14 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 14.2 |
| Passing | 499/801, 4,953 yds, 16 TD, 16 INT |
| Rushing | 113 att, 348 yds, 5 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 217 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.73 s |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| Shuttle | 4.29 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #22 overall (#2 QB) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 17 | Zion Johnson | redraft #26 |
| 18 | Treylon Burks | redraft #128 |
| 19 | Trevor Penning | redraft #78 |
| 21 | Trent McDuffie | redraft #8 |
| 22 | Quay Walker | redraft #37 |
| 23 | Kaiir Elam | redraft #123 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.