Kelvin Harmon
WR, North Carolina St. · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #206 (WAS)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #100 overall (#14 at his position), but he lasted until pick #206: teams let him slide 106 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 16 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2019 (~100%). Last NFL season: 2019.
- School
North Carolina St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.60 40-yard dash at 221 lbs: faster than 8% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 16 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 3.0 |
| Passing | 1/1, 11 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Receiving | 30 rec, 365 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 221 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.60 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 7.15 s |
| Shuttle | 4.32 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.25" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #100 overall (#14 WR) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 203 | Marcus Green | redraft #240 |
| 204 | Travis Homer | redraft #126 |
| 205 | Duke Shelley | redraft #146 |
| 207 | Ulysees Gilbert | redraft #181 |
| 208 | Scotty Miller | redraft #116 |
| 209 | Demarcus Christmas | redraft #241 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.