Keith Ismael
C, San Diego St. · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #156 (WAS)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 31 of ~67 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2023 (~46%). Last NFL season: 2023.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #112 overall (#5 at his position), but he lasted until pick #156: teams let him slide 44 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
San Diego St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.34 40-yard dash at 309 lbs: faster than 20% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 31 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 3.0 |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 309 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.34 s |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 108" |
| 3-cone | 8.14 s |
| Shuttle | 4.65 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.25" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #112 overall (#5 C) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 153 | Colton McKivitz | redraft #52 |
| 154 | Jason Strowbridge | redraft #219 |
| 155 | Trevis Gipson | redraft #108 |
| 157 | Daniel Thomas | redraft #148 |
| 158 | Bryce Hall | redraft #119 |
| 159 | Justin Rohrwasser | redraft #249 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.