Keith Heinrich
TE, Sam Houston St. · 2002 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #174 (CAR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 22 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2002 through 2007 (~23%). Last NFL season: 2007.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Sam Houston St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.77 40-yard dash at 255 lbs: faster than 37% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 22 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Receiving | 9 rec, 65 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2007 |
The 2002 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2002 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 255 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.77 s |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 6.87 s |
| Shuttle | 4.1 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
Picked around him 2002 redraft
| 171 | Matt Hill | redraft #162 |
| 172 | Josh Shaw | redraft #193 |
| 173 | Demarcus Faggins | redraft #98 |
| 175 | Chris Cash | redraft #129 |
| 176 | Kevin Thomas | redraft #141 |
| 177 | Nick Rogers | redraft #130 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.