Justin Tryon

DB, Arizona St. · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #124 (WAS)

Drafted#124WAS · 2008
Redraft rank#143of 252 picks
Typical redraft rank for pick #124~#1342000–2021 median
VerdictBelow his slot · -9spots vs. typical

Why he went too high Patterns

Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age. Details below.

  • Age

    24 years old at the draft (nflverse).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Pre-draft rankings

    No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.

  • School

    Arizona St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Athletic testing

    Ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at 190 lbs: faster than 77% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Position

    DB (DB group).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Availability

    Played 63 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2012 (~79%). Last NFL season: 2012.

Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.

Career numbers

Games63
Seasons as primary starter0
Pro Bowls0
First-team All-Pro0
Career wAV (Pro Football Reference)6
Defense84 tackles, 1 sacks, 1 INT
Last NFL season2012

The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft

115050100100150150200200250250Draft pick →Redraft rank (best at top)Jake Long: pick 1 → redraft 14Chris Long: pick 2 → redraft 24Matt Ryan: pick 3 → redraft 1Darren McFadden: pick 4 → redraft 31Glenn Dorsey: pick 5 → redraft 33Vernon Gholston: pick 6 → redraft 141Sedrick Ellis: pick 7 → redraft 64Derrick Harvey: pick 8 → redraft 100Keith Rivers: pick 9 → redraft 73Jerod Mayo: pick 10 → redraft 20Leodis McKelvin: pick 11 → redraft 52Ryan Clady: pick 12 → redraft 12Jonathan Stewart: pick 13 → redraft 23Chris Williams: pick 14 → redraft 69Branden Albert: pick 15 → redraft 30Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: pick 16 → redraft 19Gosder Cherilus: pick 17 → redraft 25Joe Flacco: pick 18 → redraft 3Jeff Otah: pick 19 → redraft 101Aqib Talib: pick 20 → redraft 10Sam Baker: pick 21 → redraft 41Felix Jones: pick 22 → redraft 60Rashard Mendenhall: pick 23 → redraft 51Chris Johnson: pick 24 → redraft 9Mike Jenkins: pick 25 → redraft 61Duane Brown: pick 26 → redraft 4Antoine Cason: pick 27 → redraft 62Lawrence Jackson: pick 28 → redraft 98Kentwan Balmer: pick 29 → redraft 137Dustin Keller: pick 30 → redraft 75Kenny Phillips: pick 31 → redraft 93Phillip Merling: pick 32 → redraft 140Donnie Avery: pick 33 → redraft 80Devin Thomas: pick 34 → redraft 151Brandon Flowers: pick 35 → redraft 29Jordy Nelson: pick 36 → redraft 8Curtis Lofton: pick 37 → redraft 22John Carlson: pick 38 → redraft 94Chilo Rachal: pick 39 → redraft 83Tracy Porter: pick 40 → redraft 48James Hardy: pick 41 → redraft 181Eddie Royal: pick 42 → redraft 36Tyrell Johnson: pick 43 → redraft 115Matt Forte: pick 44 → redraft 5Jordon Dizon: pick 45 → redraft 169Jerome Simpson: pick 46 → redraft 88Trevor Laws: pick 47 → redraft 132Fred Davis: pick 48 → redraft 99DeSean Jackson: pick 49 → redraft 7Calais Campbell: pick 50 → redraft 2Malcolm Kelly: pick 51 → redraft 161Quentin Groves: pick 52 → redraft 92Limas Sweed: pick 53 → redraft 178Jason Jones: pick 54 → redraft 42Ray Rice: pick 55 → redraft 13Brian Brohm: pick 56 → redraft 214Chad Henne: pick 57 → redraft 68Dexter Jackson: pick 58 → redraft 206Mike Pollak: pick 59 → redraft 66Pat Lee: pick 60 → redraft 155Martellus Bennett: pick 61 → redraft 38Terrence Wheatley: pick 62 → redraft 186Terrell Thomas: pick 63 → redraft 87Kevin Smith: pick 64 → redraft 85John Greco: pick 65 → redraft 55Kendall Langford: pick 66 → redraft 28Charles Godfrey: pick 67 → redraft 58Chevis Jackson: pick 68 → redraft 153Jacob Hester: pick 69 → redraft 139Earl Bennett: pick 70 → redraft 84Tavares Gooden: pick 71 → redraft 123Chris Ellis: pick 72 → redraft 173Jamaal Charles: pick 73 → redraft 11Dan Connor: pick 74 → redraft 105Reggie Smith: pick 75 → redraft 146Brad Cottam: pick 76 → redraft 170Pat Sims: pick 77 → redraft 63Shawn Crable: pick 78 → redraft 210Antwaun Molden: pick 79 → redraft 154Bryan Smith: pick 80 → redraft 196Early Doucet: pick 81 → redraft 114DaJuan Morgan: pick 82 → redraft 159Jeremy Zuttah: pick 83 → redraft 27Harry Douglas: pick 84 → redraft 46Craig Stevens: pick 85 → redraft 145Tom Zbikowski: pick 86 → redraft 112Andre Fluellen: pick 87 → redraft 125Bruce Davis: pick 88 → redraft 199Steve Slaton: pick 89 → redraft 78Marcus Harrison: pick 90 → redraft 142Jermichael Finley: pick 91 → redraft 59Cliff Avril: pick 92 → redraft 21Philip Wheeler: pick 93 → redraft 53Kevin O'Connell: pick 94 → redraft 219Mario Manningham: pick 95 → redraft 76Chad Rinehart: pick 96 → redraft 74Andre Caldwell: pick 97 → redraft 108Thomas DeCoud: pick 98 → redraft 32Oniel Cousins: pick 99 → redraft 117Tyvon Branch: pick 100 → redraft 56Justin King: pick 101 → redraft 121Jeremy Thompson: pick 102 → redraft 183William Hayes: pick 103 → redraft 45Beau Bell: pick 104 → redraft 213Will Franklin: pick 105 → redraft 185Marcus Smith: pick 106 → redraft 198Cody Wallace: pick 107 → redraft 107Kory Lichtensteiger: pick 108 → redraft 39Mike McGlynn: pick 109 → redraft 54Shawn Murphy: pick 110 → redraft 224Martin Rucker: pick 111 → redraft 201Anthony Collins: pick 112 → redraft 95Dwight Lowery: pick 113 → redraft 37Reggie Corner: pick 114 → redraft 126Dre Moore: pick 115 → redraft 190Kenny Iwebema: pick 116 → redraft 168Quintin Demps: pick 117 → redraft 77Xavier Adibi: pick 118 → redraft 152Jack Williams: pick 119 → redraft 171Craig Steltz: pick 120 → redraft 138Red Bryant: pick 121 → redraft 47Tashard Choice: pick 122 → redraft 104Bryan Kehl: pick 123 → redraft 136Arman Shields: pick 125 → redraft 231Lavelle Hawkins: pick 126 → redraft 133Jacob Tamme: pick 127 → redraft 81Keenan Burton: pick 128 → redraft 160Jonathan Wilhite: pick 129 → redraft 116Tony Hills: pick 130 → redraft 166Jack Ikegwuonu: pick 131 → redraft 225Derek Fine: pick 132 → redraft 172David Hale: pick 133 → redraft 180Stanford Keglar: pick 134 → redraft 164Josh Sitton: pick 135 → redraft 6Kenny Moore: pick 136 → redraft 195John David Booty: pick 137 → redraft 232Robert James: pick 138 → redraft 179Ryan Torain: pick 139 → redraft 150Brandon Carr: pick 140 → redraft 18Gary Barnidge: pick 141 → redraft 102Zackary Bowman: pick 142 → redraft 97Orlando Scandrick: pick 143 → redraft 65DeMario Pressley: pick 144 → redraft 188Jason Shirley: pick 145 → redraft 207Jerome Felton: pick 146 → redraft 163Alvin Bowen: pick 147 → redraft 220Carlton Powell: pick 148 → redraft 215Tim Hightower: pick 149 → redraft 67Breno Giacomini: pick 150 → redraft 35Frank Okam: pick 151 → redraft 167Letroy Guion: pick 152 → redraft 57Matthew Slater: pick 153 → redraft 197Kroy Biermann: pick 154 → redraft 72Thomas Williams: pick 155 → redraft 194Dennis Dixon: pick 156 → redraft 175Roy Schuening: pick 157 → redraft 226Kellen Davis: pick 158 → redraft 144Trae Williams: pick 159 → redraft 233Josh Johnson: pick 160 → redraft 124Marcus Howard: pick 161 → redraft 187Erik Ainge: pick 162 → redraft 234Owen Schmitt: pick 163 → redraft 192Carl Nicks: pick 164 → redraft 17Jonathan Goff: pick 165 → redraft 122Marcus Thomas: pick 166 → redraft 216Erik Walden: pick 167 → redraft 34Durant Brooks: pick 168 → redraft 211Trevor Scott: pick 169 → redraft 111Barry Richardson: pick 170 → redraft 86Marcus Henry: pick 171 → redraft 235Thomas Brown: pick 172 → redraft 236Dominique Barber: pick 173 → redraft 147Josh Morgan: pick 174 → redraft 79Geno Hayes: pick 175 → redraft 49Jalen Parmele: pick 176 → redraft 193Corey Lynch: pick 177 → redraft 131Taylor Mehlhaff: pick 178 → redraft 217Xavier Omon: pick 179 → redraft 208Kareem Moore: pick 180 → redraft 134Nick Hayden: pick 181 → redraft 71Kevin Robinson: pick 182 → redraft 205Spencer Larsen: pick 183 → redraft 148Mike Gibson: pick 184 → redraft 149Chris Harrington: pick 185 → redraft 212Colt Brennan: pick 186 → redraft 237John Sullivan: pick 187 → redraft 15Mike Humpal: pick 188 → redraft 238Tyler Schmitt: pick 189 → redraft 239Ahtyba Rubin: pick 190 → redraft 26Paul Hubbard: pick 191 → redraft 227DeJuan Tribble: pick 192 → redraft 240Jaymar Johnson: pick 193 → redraft 209Ryan Mundy: pick 194 → redraft 91Donald Thomas: pick 195 → redraft 96Tom Santi: pick 196 → redraft 174Bo Ruud: pick 197 → redraft 241Andre Woodson: pick 198 → redraft 242Robert Henderson: pick 199 → redraft 243Joe Mays: pick 200 → redraft 90Steve Justice: pick 201 → redraft 189Mike Hart: pick 202 → redraft 162Andy Studebaker: pick 203 → redraft 113Lex Hilliard: pick 204 → redraft 157Pierre Garcon: pick 205 → redraft 16Haruki Nakamura: pick 206 → redraft 118Matt Sherry: pick 207 → redraft 244Ervin Baldwin: pick 208 → redraft 218Matt Flynn: pick 209 → redraft 130Brian Johnston: pick 210 → redraft 204Nate Garner: pick 211 → redraft 106Wilrey Fontenot: pick 212 → redraft 245Chauncey Washington: pick 213 → redraft 203Larry Grant: pick 214 → redraft 119Justin Harper: pick 215 → redraft 221Landon Cohen: pick 216 → redraft 156Brett Swain: pick 217 → redraft 177Caleb Campbell: pick 218 → redraft 222Demetress Bell: pick 219 → redraft 103Josh Barrett: pick 220 → redraft 165Hilee Taylor: pick 221 → redraft 182Chester Adams: pick 222 → redraft 246Alex Brink: pick 223 → redraft 247Stevie Johnson: pick 224 → redraft 40Brandon Keith: pick 225 → redraft 129Chaz Schilens: pick 226 → redraft 135Peyton Hillis: pick 227 → redraft 82Chris Chamberlain: pick 228 → redraft 109Cary Williams: pick 229 → redraft 50King Dunlap: pick 230 → redraft 44Alex Hall: pick 231 → redraft 158Keith Zinger: pick 232 → redraft 200Justin Forsett: pick 233 → redraft 43Corey Clark: pick 234 → redraft 223Brandon Coutu: pick 235 → redraft 228Jamey Richard: pick 236 → redraft 110Adrian Arrington: pick 237 → redraft 191Cory Boyd: pick 238 → redraft 229Mike Merritt: pick 239 → redraft 248Allen Patrick: pick 240 → redraft 249Geoff Schwartz: pick 241 → redraft 89Rob Jackson: pick 242 → redraft 120Joey LaRocque: pick 243 → redraft 184Angelo Craig: pick 244 → redraft 250Lionel Dotson: pick 245 → redraft 202Mario Urrutia: pick 246 → redraft 251Kirk Barton: pick 247 → redraft 230Marcus Monk: pick 248 → redraft 252Chris Horton: pick 249 → redraft 128Mackenzy Bernadeau: pick 250 → redraft 70Kennard Cox: pick 251 → redraft 176David Vobora: pick 252 → redraft 127

Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.

How players like him did

Age
24 or older		44.9%
n=548
School
Power-conference school		50.3%
n=4,181
Athletic testing
Top 25% at his position		51.6%
n=973
Position
DB		50.7%
n=1,116

Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.

Measurables & pre-draft

Height / weight5' 9", 190 lbs
40-yard dash4.42 s
Bench press21 reps
Vertical32.5"
Broad jump119"
3-cone7.41 s
Shuttle4.28 s
Age at draft24

Picked around him 2008 redraft

121Red Bryantredraft #47
122Tashard Choiceredraft #104
123Bryan Kehlredraft #136
125Arman Shieldsredraft #231
126Lavelle Hawkinsredraft #133
127Jacob Tammeredraft #81

How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.