Justin Rogers
DL, Auburn · 2024 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #244 (DAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
The 2024 class is only 2 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #299 (#26 at his position); he went #244, 55 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Never played a regular-season NFL game.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Auburn: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DL (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 0 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 0.0 |
| Last NFL season | Never played |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2024 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2024 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 330 lbs |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Vertical | 24.5" |
| Broad jump | 99" |
| Shuttle | 4.87 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #299 overall (#26 DL) |
Picked around him 2024 redraft
| 241 | Tahj Washington | redraft #229 |
| 242 | James Williams | redraft #131 |
| 243 | Jowon Briggs | redraft #96 |
| 245 | Michael Pratt | redraft #253 |
| 246 | Devin Culp | redraft #186 |
| 247 | Marcus Harris | redraft #216 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.