Justin Hollins
LB, Oregon · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #156 (DEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, position. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #111 overall (#9 at his position), but he lasted until pick #156: teams let him slide 45 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oregon: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at 248 lbs: faster than 92% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 67 of ~83 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2023 (~81%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 67 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 8 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 8.0 |
| Defense | 74 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 248 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.50 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 119" |
| 3-cone | 7.06 s |
| Shuttle | 4.4 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.38" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #111 overall (#9 LB) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 153 | Ross Pierschbacher | redraft #215 |
| 154 | Jordan Scarlett | redraft #216 |
| 155 | Mack Wilson | redraft #58 |
| 157 | Blake Cashman | redraft #59 |
| 158 | Michael Jackson | redraft #84 |
| 159 | Byron Cowart | redraft #102 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.