Justin Green
FB, Montana · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #158 (BAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #338 (#11 at his position); he went #158, 180 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Montana: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.84 40-yard dash at 251 lbs: faster than 3% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
FB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 39 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2007 (~81%). Last NFL season: 2007.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 39 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Rushing | 5 att, 4 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 13 rec, 65 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 21 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2007 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 251 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.84 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 109" |
| 3-cone | 7.24 s |
| Shuttle | 4.21 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #338 overall (#11 FB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 155 | Larry Brackins | redraft #233 |
| 156 | Eric King | redraft #153 |
| 157 | Gerald Sensabaugh | redraft #60 |
| 159 | Jeb Huckeba | redraft #234 |
| 160 | Michael Boley | redraft #38 |
| 161 | Andre Maddox | redraft #235 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.