Junior Siavii
DT, Oregon · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #36 (KAN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, age, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #81 (#11 at his position); he went #36, 45 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
25 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 56 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2010 (~50%). Last NFL season: 2010.
- School
Oregon: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.16 40-yard dash at 344 lbs: faster than 12% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 56 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| Defense | 46 tackles, 1 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 344 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.16 s |
| Bench press | 31 reps |
| Vertical | 24.5" |
| Broad jump | 93" |
| 3-cone | 7.93 s |
| Shuttle | 4.84 s |
| Age at draft | 25 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #81 overall (#11 DT) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 33 | Karlos Dansby | redraft #7 |
| 34 | Chris Snee | redraft #8 |
| 35 | Igor Olshansky | redraft #38 |
| 37 | Teddy Lehman | redraft #108 |
| 38 | Ricardo Colclough | redraft #164 |
| 39 | Daryl Smith | redraft #10 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.