Julius Jones
RB, Notre Dame · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #43 (DAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #82 (#7 at his position); he went #43, 39 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Notre Dame: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.47 40-yard dash at 217 lbs: faster than 69% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 94 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2010 (~84%). Last NFL season: 2010.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 94 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 38 |
| Rushing | 1280 att, 5,068 yds, 22 TD |
| Receiving | 150 rec, 1,029 yds, 2 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 217 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.47 s |
| Vertical | 37.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 6.97 s |
| Shuttle | 4.12 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #82 overall (#7 RB) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 40 | Ben Troupe | redraft #118 |
| 41 | Tatum Bell | redraft #80 |
| 42 | Travis LaBoy | redraft #84 |
| 44 | Bob Sanders | redraft #49 |
| 45 | Jake Grove | redraft #86 |
| 46 | Justin Smiley | redraft #64 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.