Joshua Dobbs
QB, Tennessee · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #135 (PIT)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #63 overall (#5 at his position), but he lasted until pick #135: teams let him slide 72 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Tennessee: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.64 40-yard dash at 216 lbs: faster than 81% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 27 of ~149 possible regular-season games from 2017 through 2025 (~18%). Plus 1 game so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 28 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 9.0 |
| Passing | 351/559, 3,346 yds, 17 TD, 15 INT |
| Rushing | 110 att, 515 yds, 8 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 216 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.64 s |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| 3-cone | 6.75 s |
| Shuttle | 4.31 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #63 overall (#5 QB) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 132 | Donnel Pumphrey | redraft #238 |
| 133 | Ryan Switzer | redraft #178 |
| 134 | Jamaal Williams | redraft #49 |
| 136 | Sean Harlow | redraft #162 |
| 137 | Zach Banner | redraft #187 |
| 138 | Ryan Glasgow | redraft #175 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.