Josh Reed
WR, LSU · 2002 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #36 (BUF)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at 210 lbs: faster than 22% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 115 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2002 through 2009 (~90%). Last NFL season: 2009.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 115 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 27 |
| Rushing | 14 att, 57 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 311 rec, 3,575 yds, 10 TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2009 |
The 2002 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2002 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 210 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
Picked around him 2002 redraft
| 33 | Jabar Gaffney | redraft #38 |
| 34 | DeShaun Foster | redraft #60 |
| 35 | Kalimba Edwards | redraft #84 |
| 37 | Andre Gurode | redraft #6 |
| 38 | Raonall Smith | redraft #136 |
| 39 | Toniu Fonoti | redraft #92 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.