Josh Oliver
TE, San Jose St. · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #69 (JAX)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #102 (#7 at his position); he went #69, 33 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
San Jose St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.63 40-yard dash at 249 lbs: faster than 76% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 82 of ~117 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2025 (~70%). Plus 3 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 85 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 7 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.8 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 7.8 |
| Receiving | 88 rec, 907 yds, 11 TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 249 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.63 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 7.21 s |
| Shuttle | 4.47 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.5" / 10.63" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #102 overall (#7 TE) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 66 | Diontae Johnson | redraft #41 |
| 67 | Jalen Hurd | redraft #236 |
| 68 | Jachai Polite | redraft #207 |
| 70 | Darrell Henderson | redraft #99 |
| 71 | Dre'Mont Jones | redraft #42 |
| 72 | Germaine Pratt | redraft #23 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.