Josh Norman
DB, Coastal Carolina · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #143 (CAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #76 overall (#9 at his position), but he lasted until pick #143: teams let him slide 67 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Coastal Carolina: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at 197 lbs: faster than 10% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 141 of ~195 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2023 (~72%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 141 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 43 |
| Defense | 377 tackles, 1 sacks, 16 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 197 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.61 s |
| Bench press | 14 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| 3-cone | 7.09 s |
| Shuttle | 4.23 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.6" / 9.2" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #76 overall (#9 DB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 140 | Najee Goode | redraft #122 |
| 141 | Adam Gettis | redraft #191 |
| 142 | Brandon Marshall | redraft #57 |
| 144 | Zebrie Sanders | redraft #235 |
| 145 | Taylor Thompson | redraft #204 |
| 146 | DeQuan Menzie | redraft #236 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.