Josh Morgan
WR, Virginia Tech · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #174 (SFO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #133 overall (#18 at his position), but he lasted until pick #174: teams let him slide 41 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Virginia Tech: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at 219 lbs: faster than 53% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 93 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2014 (~83%). Last NFL season: 2014.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 93 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 21 |
| Passing | undefined/1, 0 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 14 att, 146 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 209 rec, 2,558 yds, 12 TD |
| Defense | 6 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 219 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #133 overall (#18 WR) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 171 | Marcus Henry | redraft #235 |
| 172 | Thomas Brown | redraft #236 |
| 173 | Dominique Barber | redraft #147 |
| 175 | Geno Hayes | redraft #49 |
| 176 | Jalen Parmele | redraft #193 |
| 177 | Corey Lynch | redraft #131 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.