Josh McCown
QB, Sam Houston St. · 2002 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #81 (ARI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Sam Houston St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.59 40-yard dash at 221 lbs: faster than 86% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 102 of ~288 possible regular-season games from 2002 through 2019 (~35%). Last NFL season: 2019.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 102 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 40 |
| Passing | 1584/2633, 17,731 yds, 98 TD, 82 INT |
| Rushing | 248 att, 1,106 yds, 13 TD |
| Receiving | 3 rec, 10 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2002 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2002 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 221 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.59 s |
| Vertical | 38.5" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 6.85 s |
| Shuttle | 3.9 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
Picked around him 2002 redraft
| 78 | Jeff Hatch | redraft #173 |
| 79 | Rashad Bauman | redraft #164 |
| 80 | Will Overstreet | redraft #188 |
| 82 | James Allen | redraft #119 |
| 83 | Charles Hill | redraft #179 |
| 84 | Lamar Gordon | redraft #122 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.