Josh Brown
K, Nebraska · 2003 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #222 (SEA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
K (ST group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68% of the time (97 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 201 of ~224 possible regular-season games from 2003 through 2016 (~90%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Nebraska: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.81 40-yard dash at 202 lbs: faster than 67% of STs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 201 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 34 |
| Passing | 1/1, 36 yds, 1 TD, undefined INT |
| Defense | 23 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2003 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2003 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position ST | 68.0% n=97 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 202 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.81 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
Picked around him 2003 redraft
| 219 | Justin Bates | redraft #250 |
| 220 | Blue Adams | redraft #168 |
| 221 | Keenan Howry | redraft #203 |
| 223 | Trent Smith | redraft #222 |
| 224 | Taco Wallace | redraft #227 |
| 225 | Todd Williams | redraft #216 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.