Josey Jewell
ILB, Iowa · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #106 (DEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
ILB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #91 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#106). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Iowa: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.82 40-yard dash at 234 lbs: faster than 9% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 90 of ~116 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2024 (~78%). Last NFL season: 2024.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 90 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 32 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 32.0 |
| Defense | 314 tackles, 12.5 sacks, 3 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 234 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.82 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 6.8 s |
| Shuttle | 4.27 s |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #91 overall (#3 ILB) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 103 | Keke Coutee | redraft #160 |
| 104 | Nyheim Hines | redraft #77 |
| 105 | Antonio Callaway | redraft #175 |
| 107 | Chris Herndon | redraft #164 |
| 108 | Kyle Lauletta | redraft #236 |
| 109 | Troy Apke | redraft #163 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.