Jordan Payton
WR, UCLA · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #154 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 4 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2016 (~25%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #83 overall (#12 at his position), but he lasted until pick #154: teams let him slide 71 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
UCLA: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.47 40-yard dash at 207 lbs: faster than 49% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 4 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 0.0 |
| Receiving | 1 rec, 3 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 207 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.47 s |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 7.08 s |
| Shuttle | 4.33 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.75" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #83 overall (#12 WR) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 151 | Joe Dahl | redraft #117 |
| 152 | Matthew Ioannidis | redraft #74 |
| 153 | Wendell Smallwood | redraft #124 |
| 155 | Joe Haeg | redraft #81 |
| 156 | Jonathan Williams | redraft #161 |
| 157 | LeShaun Sims | redraft #120 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.