Jordan Howard
RB, Indiana · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #150 (CHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #94 overall (#6 at his position), but he lasted until pick #150: teams let him slide 56 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Indiana: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.57 40-yard dash at 230 lbs: faster than 37% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 73 of ~114 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2022 (~64%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 73 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 27 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 27.0 |
| Rushing | 1019 att, 4,362 yds, 37 TD |
| Receiving | 85 rec, 653 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 230 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.57 s |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #94 overall (#6 RB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 147 | Quinton Jefferson | redraft #63 |
| 148 | Caleb Benenoch | redraft #109 |
| 149 | Paul Perkins | redraft #155 |
| 151 | Joe Dahl | redraft #117 |
| 152 | Matthew Ioannidis | redraft #74 |
| 153 | Wendell Smallwood | redraft #124 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.