Johnny Manziel
QB, Texas A&M · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #22 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 14 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2015 (~44%). Last NFL season: 2015.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #22 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#22).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas A&M: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.68 40-yard dash at 207 lbs: faster than 75% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 14 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Passing | 147/258, 1,675 yds, 7 TD, 7 INT |
| Rushing | 46 att, 259 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 207 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.68 s |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 6.75 s |
| Shuttle | 4.03 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.3" / 9.7" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #22 overall (#2 QB) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 19 | Ja'Wuan James | redraft #62 |
| 20 | Brandin Cooks | redraft #11 |
| 21 | Ha Ha Clinton-Dix | redraft #44 |
| 23 | Dee Ford | redraft #71 |
| 24 | Darqueze Dennard | redraft #103 |
| 25 | Jason Verrett | redraft #89 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.