John Simpson
G, Clemson · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #109 (LVR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #188 (#10 at his position); he went #109, 79 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Clemson: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.24 40-yard dash at 321 lbs: faster than 43% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 85 of ~101 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2025 (~84%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 92 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 28 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 3.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 31.2 |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 321 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.24 s |
| Bench press | 34 reps |
| Vertical | 30" |
| Broad jump | 107" |
| 3-cone | 8.03 s |
| Shuttle | 4.87 s |
| Arm / hand | 34.13" / 11.13" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #188 overall (#10 G) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 106 | Tyre Phillips | redraft #115 |
| 107 | Akeem Davis-Gaither | redraft #88 |
| 108 | Saahdiq Charles | redraft #129 |
| 110 | Darnay Holmes | redraft #132 |
| 111 | Solomon Kindley | redraft #145 |
| 112 | Joshua Kelley | redraft #126 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.